Performance summary
The first quarter of 2026 was challenging, with market conditions from November 2025 through mid-April 2026 reminiscent of a combination of late 2021 to 1Q22, as well as the sharp “Liberation Day” tariff-driven collapse and rebound.
Longer-duration growth companies (where we often find the best multibagger opportunities) came under severe pressure during 1Q26. This was particularly evident in the software sector, given artificial intelligence (AI) disruption fears. However, the weakness was not isolated, with even fundamentally unrelated sectors caught in the broader sell-off.
At various times during the quarter, leadership rotated rapidly between Consumer Staples, Industrials, and Mining companies, only for each to take a severe beating thereafter. Sector moves can often contain insight about the market’s view on the economy. For example, strength in Industrials can indicate accelerating economic growth, while Consumer Staples tend to lead ahead of recessions. This time around, the moves appeared to be mostly noise and liquidity-driven, with little information value.
The fund was out of sync with the market in the quarter under review, as is inevitable from time to time, although the tide started to turn in March on a relative basis. That said, active portfolio management prevented a worse outcome, adding over 6% of value during the quarter. There is a saying in investing, “Either you panic early or double up late – anything in between will get you killed”. Faced with that choice, I prefer to panic early, particularly when growth shares start to perform poorly.
That said, with many shares down over 50% from their 2025 peaks, and after their third major bear market in recent years (including 2022 and early 2025), the current environment is rich with opportunities. Numerous stocks are setting up for multibagger returns.
The market is always right. Even when it is wrong
Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett, has passed down a treasure trove of investing wisdom over the years. But I suspect a number of investors misinterpret his admonition to “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful” to mean “The market is stupid, just do the opposite”.
Does the market overreact and get things wrong? Of course! Does that mean you should do the opposite of the market every time? Definitely not!
Readers will be familiar with the concept of ‘The wisdom of crowds’. A common example is a competition where participants guess the number of jelly beans in a jar. Inevitably, the average of all the guesses is more accurate than 99% of individual guesses. Applying the idea to markets: even if you are literally the smartest person on the planet, you are not smarter than the millions of market participants combined.
The market sets the price, by definition. Let us say you think Apple is worth US$500/share, and the market is wrong. Maybe that is true, but that opinion is worthless until the market agrees with you. US economist and professor, Benjamin Graham (who mentored Buffet) describes the market as a “weighing machine” over the long term, but it never, ever has to weigh in your favour. Even if the market is occasionally wrong, on a probability-adjusted basis, the better default assumption is to assume the market is right.
At present, the market is saying that the US/Israel/Iran war is effectively over, at least in terms of material downside risk to the US stock market (the story for other regions may be more complicated). As with the tariff drama last year (or COVID-19, the global financial crisis, etc.), markets typically bottom and move higher before the situation is fully resolved.
Markets are forward-looking and acclimatise to bad news quickly; it takes new shocks to drive further declines. Conversely, the market is able to climb the proverbial wall of known worries. Investors who fight the market because “It doesn’t make sense”, or the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, or they despise Trump, are unlikely to be vindicated.
The market is currently signalling a more constructive outlook, and the Anchor Global Equity Fund is positioned accordingly. If the message changes, so will the fund, but if the bulls are running, it is wise to run with them.
