The South African (SA) equity market’s recent streak as a top-performing global bourse ended abruptly in March (FTSE/JSE Capped All Share -10.5% MoM). A 1.6% rally by domestic equities on the last day of March saved the local bourse from delivering its worst monthly drawdown since the global financial crisis almost 20 years ago. Precious metal miners, the driving force of recent outperformance, were the biggest detractors last month. Gold miners (-18% MoM) and platinum miners (-25% MoM) contributed more than 6% to the JSE’s March drawdown, with the precious metal miners’ share prices tracking precious metal prices sharply lower. Gold (-12% MoM) saw a quarter of its value wiped out during the first few weeks of March before a late-month rally eased some of the pain for the yellow metal investors. Platinum (-18% MoM) fared even worse, though such is the strength of its recent rally that the March drawdown has only taken its price back to late-December levels.
The pain on the JSE was not limited to precious metal miners, with drawdowns across most sectors. Domestic economy bellwethers, the banks (-10% MoM) saw their YTD gains erased in March. Resource companies operating in the energy sector were the only real bright spot on the JSE, with coal miners Thungela (+51% MoM) and Exxaro (+14% MoM) rallying alongside Sasol (+55% MoM). Glencore (+12% MoM) was another resource company to benefit from its exposure to energy markets.
Local bonds were another casualty of the March sell-off. The FTSE/JSE All Bond Index of SA government bonds had the second-worst month in its 25-year history (-7% MoM) as the SA government’s 10-year borrowing rate spiked 1.2% to 9.3% p.a. during March.
The SA Reserve Bank (SARB) meeting in late March ended in a decision to keep rates on hold at 6.75% p.a. (as expected). The meeting was held days after SA’s February inflation data release showed prices in the country’s inflation basket rising in line with the SARB’s new 3% target, albeit before the impact of the recent energy price spike had filtered through into the data, and with still meaningful uncertainty about the longevity of the higher energy prices.
The rand was the worst-performing major currency in March, falling 5.9% MoM against a strong US dollar as investors flocked to the relative safety of the US currency. The March losses erased early-2026 gains to leave the local currency 2.2% weaker against the US dollar for 1Q26, though it is still 8.2% stronger than the US currency over the past year.
