Strat Doc 3Q18 – Will electric vehicles stun oil demand

The adoption of the electric vehicle (EV) has the potential to significantly affect energy markets. In this note, we focus on the potential ramifications for oil. We examine three key questions: First, what is the state of the EV market today? We shall argue that EVs are currently a small but rapidly growing sub-section of the car market. Second, what is EV penetration likely to be in future? Here, we estimate that 8% of 2025 car sales will be EVs, based on regulation, battery costs and original equipment manufacturer (OEM) commitments. Finally, and most importantly, what does this outlook mean for oil demand?

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