The JSE was one of the best-performing global stock markets in November (FTSE/JSE Capped SWIX Index +2.3% MoM); the only major bourse to outperform the JSE last month was the Brazilian Bovespa (+6.4% MoM). The November rally pushed the FTSE/JSE Capped SWIX Index to a 51% YTD gain when measured in US dollar terms. Only the Bovespa and the Spanish IBEX 35 (+53% and +64% YTD, respectively, in US dollar terms) have been able to do better thus far in 2025.
Precious metal miners were back as the driving force of JSE returns in November, with gold and platinum miners up 13% MoM in aggregate, boosted by a re-acceleration in precious metal prices. Gold and platinum prices both rallied c. 6% MoM, leaving these precious metal prices 62% and 84% higher, respectively, YTD. JSE-listed investment holding companies Naspers (-12% MoM) and Prosus (-10% MoM) were the biggest detractors from the JSE’s performance in November, significantly underperforming their largest investment holding, Chinese tech conglomerate Tencent (-3% MoM). Despite showing good execution under new CEO Fabricio Bloisi during his seventeen months at the helm of the investment companies and releasing a solid set of earnings in November, the share price reacted poorly to the earnings release. Investors appeared concerned about the lack of clarity around future share buybacks, as the company signalled an unwillingness to sell down more Tencent shares to fund buybacks.
South Africa’s (SA) Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on 12 November was well received by investors as Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana continues to deliver on good fiscal discipline, anchoring future expenditure and borrowing growth to the country’s newly announced 3% p.a. inflation target. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB), meeting in the wake of a prudent budget, a reduced inflation target, and recently released core inflation data (+3.1% YoY), which came in below expectations, voted unanimously to cut rates by 0.25%. The latest reduction takes the prime lending rate to 10.25% p.a. after six cuts totalling 1.5% cumulatively since September 2024.
The SA government’s 10-year borrowing yield continued to fall in November, ending the month at 8.5% p.a. – the lowest rate in almost five years. The rand strengthened 1.3% MoM against a generally weaker US dollar, leaving it 10% stronger against the greenback YTD.
