South African (SA) equity markets delivered a fifth consecutive positive monthly return (FTSE/JSE Capped SWIX Index +2.2% MoM), leaving the local bourse 18.7% higher YTD. In a familiar theme for the year, it was the precious metal miners that were driving returns, with platinum miners +10% MoM and gold miners +4% MoM delivering more than half of the July index returns between them. Platinum group metals (PGMs), rhodium (+32% MoM), and palladium (+8% MoM) led the PGM miners’ share prices higher. Telcos, another JSE sector that has outperformed in 2025 (+64% YTD), were also amongst the local bourse’s winners in July. Telkom (+16% MoM) reported strong FY25 results and a resumption of dividend payments (after a four-year suspension), while MTN (+9% MoM) was buoyed by the strong operational performance reported by its Nigerian unit.
Investment conglomerates Naspers and Prosus (+3% MoM/+36% YTD in aggregate) also lifted the JSE’s performance in July. JSE-listed stocks with predominantly global earnings, Anheuser Busch InBev (ABI) and Richemont (-10% MoM), were two of the JSE’s biggest losers in July. ABI reported 2Q25 earnings growth of 6.5% YoY and reiterated medium-term expectations for 4%-8% p.a. profit growth, but investors were spooked by volume declines in Brazil (-9% YoY) and China (-7.4% YoY), with the share price falling sharply to leave the counter down 12% MoM. Richemont delivered a solid 1Q26 trading update, with its key jewellery division growing by 7.1% YoY. Still, the share price struggled (-10% MoM) as sentiment towards luxury goods companies soured with poor results reported by peer LVMH and concerns around continued weakness in demand for luxury goods from Chinese consumers and the potential impact of tariffs.
The SA Reserve Bank (SARB) delivered an anticipated 0.25% cut to the central bank rate at its July meeting, lowering the country’s prime lending rate to 10.5% p.a. and bringing some much-needed relief to SA borrowers. The rate cut helped lower the SA government’s 10-year borrowing rate, which ended July at 9.7% p.a., falling 0.25% during July despite global 10-year borrowing rates ending the month generally higher. The local currency weakened (-2.8% MoM) against a strong US dollar, though the rand remains 3.4% stronger against the US dollar YTD.
